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Jared's avatar

While Enron didn’t hide most of what they did, they were never this brazen about it

Jorge Desmaras's avatar

This piece conflates three entirely different questions: whether Nvidia's revenue recognition is appropriate, whether GPU-backed financing is a sound credit investment, and whether Athene policyholders are at risk. They're not the same thing.

The biggest flaw is the assumption that Athene annuity holders are somehow "holding the bag" on a single GPU transaction. Athene policyholders have a claim on a highly diversified insurance balance sheet, not on one securitization. By that logic, bank depositors are "backing" every individual loan on a bank's balance sheet.

The comparison to 2008 also feels forced. The crisis was driven by deteriorating underwriting standards, short-term funding, and liquidity runs. Athene's liabilities are long-duration and generally illiquid, which is precisely why insurers have historically been natural holders of long-dated credit assets.

There are legitimate criticisms of Apollo's model—regulatory capital arbitrage, AIR transactions, concentration in private credit, reliance on ratings, and increasing balance sheet complexity. Those are serious issues worth debating. But replacing that discussion with phrases like "shell company," "laundering AI risk," and "retirees funding Elon Musk's data centers" makes for a compelling narrative, not necessarily a compelling credit analysis.

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